Renewed Offensive Impact
Al-Shabaab's renewed offensive through late 2025 into early 2026 has reversed earlier government gains in south and central Somalia. Territory previously considered liberated has been retaken, expanding Al-Shabaab's capacity to identify, tax, recruit, and target individuals in previously government-controlled areas.
This significantly affects both individual targeting claims and Article 15(c) indiscriminate violence analysis. Expert reports must cite current territorial control data from ACLED and UN sources.
Risk Profiles
Profiles at risk from Al-Shabaab include government officials and security personnel, community leaders and clan elders, peace activists, electoral delegates, cooperative businesspeople, and those refusing Al-Shabaab taxation or forced recruitment. The July 2025 CPIN confirms state protection is unavailable.
Expert Report Structure
Al-Shabaab risk assessment reports should address: the appellant's profile and visibility to Al-Shabaab; territorial control in the area of origin; Al-Shabaab recruitment and taxation practices; state protection availability; and internal relocation viability. Reports cite July 2025 CPIN, EUAA October 2025 guidance, and field research.