Article 15(c) of the Qualification Directive provides subsidiary protection where a person faces a serious and individual threat by reason of indiscriminate violence in situations of international or internal armed conflict. South and central Somalia outside Mogadishu falls within this framework rather than the MOJ individual risk assessment.
Al-Shabaab's renewed offensive through late 2025 has retaken territory in lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle, significantly affecting Article 15(c) analysis. Expert witnesses provide current data on civilian casualty rates, territorial control, and the level of indiscriminate violence in the appellant's specific area of origin.
The tribunal applies a two-stage test: first, whether there is a situation of armed conflict; second, whether the level of indiscriminate violence is such that a civilian would face a real risk. Expert evidence on ACLED data, UN reports, and field conditions supports both stages of this analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Article 15(c) apply to Somali claims?
Article 15(c) applies to claims from south and central Somalia outside Mogadishu where the issue is indiscriminate violence rather than individual targeting. It requires assessment of the level of generalised violence in the appellant's specific area of origin against the Article 15(c) threshold.
How has Al-Shabaab's 2025-2026 offensive affected Article 15(c) claims?
The renewed offensive has retaken previously liberated territory, increasing civilian casualty rates and expanding Al-Shabaab control. This strengthens Article 15(c) arguments for appellants from affected areas and undermines internal relocation to those areas.